Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
Horse Racing tips for the meetings at Newmarket and Cheltenham on Wednesday afternoon.
Alan Kelly We’ve got daily tips from our resident horse racing expert, Alan Kelly.
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After an excellent start to the week with 7/1 and 9/1 winners and a profit of £17.22 over the first two days, we gave it all back on Saturday due to a series of unpredictable results on ITV’s nine-race coverage from Ayr and Newbury. A crystal ball would have come in very handy.
- P/L for the w/e Sunday, April 13th: -£2.10
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Alan Kelly’s Horse Racing Tips
A fascinating afternoon of horse racing action, with the second day of Newmarket’s Craven meeting complemented by an excellent jumps card at Cheltenham. The Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton stables are well represented at Prestbury Park in their ongoing battle for the 2024/25 trainers’ championship.
Nap of the Day - Long Draw (3:50pm Cheltenham)
An impressive winner over today’s course and distance back in December, Sean Bowen’s mount is fancied to record a second victory at Prestbury Park with conditions to suit.
1:50pm Newmarket - Gallant (Each-Way)
It's easy to make a case out for most of the 14 runners for this wide-open 6f three-year-old handicap. Hamad Al Jehani’s Defence Minister will appreciate this drop in class after failing to make an impact in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on this course as a juvenile.
Godolphin’s Al Misbar is still a maiden after four starts but should be capable of winning off a current mark of 86, while Dark Cloud Rising, Double Rush and bottom weight Cayman Tai are others with solid claims. However, the Andrew Balding stable was in great form at Newbury on Saturday with four winners and is fancied to go close once again with Gallant, the mount of Oisin Murphy.
The son of Hello Youmzain, following a promising debut at Salisbury last August, opened his account with a victory on Kempton’s all-weather track in October. The second and third horses home, West Acre and So Darn Hot, have won six races between them since then. Looking very much in need of the run when fourth at Lingfield on his reappearance last month (drifted out from evens to 9/4), Gallant will strip fitter with that run under his belt and off a mark of 85 is fancied to make the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Gallant (Each-Way) - 11/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
3:35pm Newmarket - Wimbledon Hawkeye
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won three of the last six Craven Stakes and in the Godolphin-owned pair of Aomori City and Opera Ballo, the handler has every chance of making it 4 from 7. Jockey bookings would suggest that the former, a creditable third at the Breeders’ Cup, is the stable’s number one contender. That must have been a difficult decision to make for William Buick however, as the latter impressed with both of his victories on Kempton’s all-weather track this year, the Ghaiyyath colt unraced as a juvenile.
The Gosden’s Field Of Gold will appreciate today’s faster ground rather than the soft conditions encountered when fourth at Longchamp on Arc weekend, a remark which also applies to the James Owen-trained Wimbledon Hawkeye, who gets the narrow vote in a fascinating 2000 Guineas trial.
The son of Kameko split a couple of top class juveniles in The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court when runner-up in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor Festival with fellow rival The Waco Kid five lengths back in fourth place.
Many of the nine runners for this Group 3 contest are likely to come on for the run; so with the James Owen stable in such good form (10 winners during the last 14 days), Harry Davies’ mount can earn his place in the Betfred-sponsored Classic with a big run at headquarters.
Recommendation: Wimbledon Hawkeye - 97/2 with bet365
3:50pm Cheltenham - Long Draw (Nap)
The 12-year-old veteran Dashel Drasher heads the weights for this 3m handicap hurdle. Rex Dingle’s mount has proved a great servant for trainer Jeremy Scott over the years but it seems that father time is catching up with the Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up of two years ago, who returns to the smaller obstacles following three runs over fences this season.
Cases can be made for many of the 10 runners, in particular Samuel Spade, Super Survivor and Dan Skelton’s Mr Hope Street. But I’m keen on the chances of Olly Murphy’s Long Draw, the mount of champion elect Sean Bowen. The six-year-old’s attitude was beginning to be questioned after finishing second on his first four starts of the season, before finally going one better over today’s course and distance in the lead up to Christmas.
Quickening five lengths clear up the Cheltenham hill after taking up the running approaching the last, Long Draw has some talented rivals in behind, including subsequent Grade 2 winner Gowel Road, Wonderful Eagle (a winner at Newbury next time), with fellow rival Zain Nights 25 lengths back in 8th place.
Running off a 7lb higher mark, Long Draw failed to follow-up at Wincanton on Boxing Day when finishing a staying-on fourth in the hands of 5lb claimer Beau Morgan, a race dominated by those horses racing up with the pace. Back on a track that clearly suits the six-year-old gelding, I expect a big run from this improving staying hurdler.
Recommendation: Long Draw (Nap) - 9/2 with bet365
3:50pm Cheltenham - Hymac
A strong finishing second behind Sam Brown in a veterans’ chase at Newbury six weeks ago, Olly Murphy’s Grandads Cottage is 4 from 12 over fences. Sean Bowen’s mount, 8th of 24 in last year’s Topham Chase at Aintree, looks sure to go well for a stable that continues in good form.
Last year’s first, second and fifth horses home, Manothepeople, Moroder and Java Point take each other on again, all on the back of decent efforts on their most recent starts. Last year’s winner ran a cracker to finish fifth in the Kim Muir at the festival, leading 3 out until weakening in the closing stages. Moroder caused a bit of a shock when winning Doncaster’s Grimthorpe Chase for the second year running, while Java Point found only the Dan Skelton-trained Hoe Joly Smoke a neck too good at Sandown last month.
The vote, however, goes to Harry Fry’s Hymac, the mount of jockey Bryan Carver. After pulling-up on his chasing debut at Chepstow in October 2023, the son of Ask has done little wrong, including when recording a victory over an extra 2f at this meeting 12 months ago.
Third behind Moroder in the Grimthorpe last time, the nine-year-old meets the winner on 6lb better terms today and is fancied to overturn that form in a race which should be run to suit.
Recommendation: Hymac - 11/4 with William Hill
5pm Cheltenham - Continuance
At 4, the youngest of the 16 contenders for this conditional jockeys’ and amateur riders’ handicap hurdle, the Martin Keighley-trained Continuance is still very much unexposed over the smaller obstacles. A 19 length winner at Sedgefield on his debut in October, the Postponed gelding failed to complete the course on his next two starts, pulling-up in a Grade 2 on this course after pulling far too hard, before running out with 2 to jump at Catterick when holding a two length lead.
The mount of Freddie Keighley, an easy winner on the flat at Chepstow 12 months ago, could not have been more impressive when winning handicap hurdles at Ludlow and Fontwell this year, making all of the running without being extended on both occasions. Now running off a mark of 122, Continuance still has more improvement to come and if settling better than on his last visit to Prestbury Park, would have a great chance of landing the hat-trick.
Recommendation: Continuance - 11/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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