Texans v Chargers Tips: NFL Wild Card Picks & Betting Offers
The 2025 NFL Playoffs kick off on Saturday, 11 January, with the AFC Wild Card showdown at NRG Stadium in Houston. The No. 4 seed Houston Texans welcome the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers, and we’ve crafted our Texans v Chargers tips in the form of a bet builder.
This marks the first meeting between the Chargers and Texans since 2 October 2022, when Los Angeles secured a 34-24 victory at NRG Stadium. As per leading UK betting sites, the Chargers are favoured by 3 points, with the total set at 42.5 points.
Texans v Chargers Tips: 14/5 Bet Builder for NFL Wild Card
We’ve crafted our Texans v Chargers bet builder using Betfair, widely recognised as one of the best NFL betting sites for its excellent range of markets.
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Texans v Chargers Under 42.5 Points
This is the lowest total among the six Wild Card matchups for a reason. The Chargers boast the NFL’s top-scoring defense, conceding just 17.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Texans allow 21.9 points per game (14th in the league). As such, we’ll begin our Texans v Chargers tips by backing the under on the total.
Both defensive units excelled against the pass during the regular season. The Texans ranked sixth in passing yards allowed (201.0 per game), fifth in sacks (49), third in passes defended (90), and second in interceptions (19).
On the other side, the Chargers allowed 206.9 passing yards per game (7th) while tallying 46 sacks (6th), 87 passes defended (5th), and 15 interceptions (tied 8th).
The Chargers struggled somewhat against the run, giving up 117.5 rushing yards per game (14th) and 4.7 yards per carry (27th). The Texans fared slightly better, surrendering 114.0 rushing yards per game (11th) and 4.3 yards per carry (tied 9th).
In terms of red-zone defense, the Chargers led the league (45.0%), while the Texans ranked 27th (63.6%). The Chargers allowed the fewest red-zone attempts during the regular season (40), with the Texans just behind them at 44.
Offensively, neither team set the league alight. The Chargers leaned heavily on their defense, scoring 23.6 points per game (11th) on 213.5 passing yards (19th) and 110.7 rushing yards (17th). However, their offensive output has been inflated, with 74 points scored over the past two weeks against weaker opponents in New England and Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, the Texans averaged 21.9 points per game (19th) with 207.4 passing yards (21st) and 112.3 rushing yards (15th). Notably, Houston has failed to score more than 23 points in its last five games.
Houston Texans Over 98.5 Rushing Yards
The Texans’ pass protection will face significant challenges against the Chargers’ defensive line, forcing Houston to rely on its ground game to defy the odds in this contest. Over the past four weeks, C.J. Stroud has been sacked 12 times while averaging just 162.8 passing yards per game.
Last week, the Texans secured a 23-14 road victory over the Tennessee Titans, amassing an impressive 207 rushing yards. Dameon Pierce spearheaded the effort with 19 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown, while Joe Mixon managed just five carries for 23 yards before exiting in the first quarter.
Pierce played primarily as a backup during the regular season, recording 293 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 40 carries across 11 appearances. In contrast, Mixon served as the lead back, racking up 245 carries for 1,016 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games, including seven performances with over 100 rushing yards.
The Chargers have struggled to contain the run, allowing at least 110 rushing yards in six of their last nine games. In Week 15, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran for a staggering 223 yards in a 40-17 rout of the Chargers.
With key wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell sidelined due to injury, the Texans will need to rely heavily on their running backs to carry the load in this Wild Card matchup.
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