The 18th edition of the AFC Asian Cup kicks off on Friday, with hosts and reigning champions Qatar taking on Lebanon at Lusail Stadium, the venue that, a mere 390 days earlier, staged the World Cup Final itself.
Asia’s top 24 national teams will converge on Qatar, all, with varying degrees of feasibility, dreaming of being crowned champions on 10 February.
Since the inaugural edition in 1956, nine different nations have won the Asian Cup, and we believe that six sides, all of whom are past winners, have a genuine shot at glory this time round.
So, we’ll count down from six to one, predicting who will go all the way and also provide you with some of the best Asian Cup betting offers on the market ahead of the tournament.
6: Qatar - 8/1
Despite their dismal showing at the World Cup on home soil, losing all three matches and scoring just a solitary goal, Qatar were, and still are, reigning Asian champions, beating Japan 3-1 in the final in Abū Dhabī five years ago, claiming major silverware for the very first time.
Head Coach Félix Sánchez Bas, who led them to that triumph, was sacked following the World Cup, with the QFA changing manager no less than three times in the last 12 months.
Bruno Pinheiro had four games in charge, Carlos Queiroz oversaw 11 matches, including their dire showing at last summer’s CONCACAF Gold Cup, with Tintín Márquez succeeding him as recently as December.
The 61 year old will have taken charge of just two matches, friendlies against Cambodia and Jordan, prior the tournament beginning in earnest, which is far from ideal.
Despite this off-field turmoil, the Maroons still have enough quality in their squad to make a deep run, just as they did at the most-recent edition.
2019 golden boot winner Almoez Ali, goalkeeper of the tournament Saad Al Sheeb and creator in chief Hassan Al-Haydos remain key figures, although they are all five years older; aren’t we all?!
So, while we’re not backing Qatar to retain their trophy, supported by a home crowd, we expect the Maroons to make a deep run, possibly with the semi-finals their ceiling.
5: IR Iran - 7/1
Despite featuring at each of the last three World Cups, and five of the last seven, it’s almost five decades since IR Iran were crowned Asian Champions.
Amazingly, the first three Asian Cups at which Team Melli featured, they won it, picking up the trophy in 1968, 1972 and 1976, defeating Kuwait on home soil in the most-recent of those finals.
Since then, Iran have been ever-presents, featuring at all 11 editions of the competition, but they’ve got no further than the semi-finals, falling at that hurdle on six separate occasions.
In 2019, wins over Oman and China PR saw them reach the last four for the first time in 15 years, only to be hammered 3-0 by Japan in Al Ain.
Since, this team have claimed just their third-ever World Cup win, beating Wales 2-0 in November 2022, before narrowly missing out on a debut knockout appearance, ousted 1-0 by USA in their final group game.
Following the tournament, Amir Ghalenoei was named as Iran’s new Head Coach and, 11 games into his tenure, he’s yet to taste defeat, most notably claiming the CAFA Nations Cup, a tournament for Central Asian teams.
His squad features plenty of attacking talent, namely Alireza Jahanbakhsh of Feyenoord as well as strikers Mehdi Taremi of Porto and Roma’s Sardar Azmoun who, between the pair, have scored 90 international goals.
For 33 year old captain Ehsan Hajsafi, and many other veterans in the team, this could well be their last chance to end Iran’s Asian Cup draught.
Team Melli are certainly one of the leading contenders to go all the way in Qatar, so it would not surprise us if they did but, with a tough path to the final, we think they might just fall short.
4: Australia - 13/2
Australia only joined AFC as recently as 2006, but they certainly made an immediate impact after first moving over from Oceania.
At just their second Asian Cup in 2011, the Socceroos got all the way to the final, beaten 1-0 in extra time by Japan at the Khalifa International Stadium in Qatar.
Four years later, led by Ange Postecoglou (whatever happened to him?) Australia not only hosted the Asian Cup but won the whole shebang, defeating Korea Republic 2-1 in front of over 76,000 spectators in Sydney.
Only two matches in Asian Cup history have been witnessed by a bigger crowd, both featuring co-host Indonesia at Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta in 2007.
At the most-recent edition in 2019, the Socceroos’ put in a meek defence of their title, only overcoming Uzbekistan on penalties, before being dumped out in the quarter-finals by hosts United Arab Emirates.
This left manager Graham Arnold under pressure, that is until he guided his country to the World Cup knockout stages in 2022, beating both Tunisia and Denmark, before a narrow defeat to Argentina, thereby matching Australia’s best-ever performance at the tournament.
In terms of the squad, 12 ply their trade in either England or Scotland, but none are doing so in the Premier League, with the Socceroos team generally lacking the stardust of yesteryear.
Mat Ryan will captain the team in goal, chasing down Mark Schwarzer all-time caps record, currently 23 short.
Leicester’s Harry Souttar is their best centre-back, while Martin Boyle of Hibs is a dangerous attacker, but this side does lack top-end talent, probably prohibiting the Socceroos from claiming a second Asian Cup trophy.
3: Saudi Arabia - 7/1
Saudi Arabia were certainly one of the stories of the World Cup in Qatar, so can the Green Falcons now claim a fourth Asian Cup title as they return across the boarder?
When last we saw them, Saudi Arabia were claiming only their fourth win at a World Cup ever, coming from a goal down to beat eventual champions Argentina 2-1; one of the biggest World Cup shocks of all-time.
Yes they were still eliminated in the group stages, beaten by Poland and then Mexico, but Salem Al-Dawsari’s long-range strike, that proved to be the winning goal, will always be an historic moment.
Of course, on the club side, the Saudi Pro League has boomed over the last 12 months, following unfathomable levels of investment from PIF, but will this lead to an improvement in the national side?
Between 1984, their debut appearance, and 2007, Saudi Arabia were a serious force at the Asian Cup, reaching six of the seven finals, hoisting aloft the trophy in 1984, 1988 and 1996, most-recently defeated by Iraq in the final in Jakarta 17 years ago.
Since then however, the Green Falcons’ showing at this tournament has been pretty abysmal, eliminated in the group phase in both 2011 and 2015, before being dumped out by Japan in the round of 16 last time out.
So, first and foremost, Saudi Arabia’s aim at this competition will be to win a first knockout tie since a semi-final triumph in Hà Nội in 2007.
While few members of their squad will be familiar, unless you’re an avid Saudi Pro League observer, their manager certainly will be, with Roberto Mancini controversially ditching Italy to take over back in August.
He claimed to have stepped down as Gli Azzurri head coach for ‘personal reasons’, with Gazzetta dello Sport’s headline ‘25 million personal reasons’ referencing Mancini’s astronomical wage in his new role.
Fair to say, his tenure didn’t get off to the best of starts, beaten in friendlies by Costa Rica, South Korea and Mali before, eventually, claiming his first wins, these in November World Cup qualifiers against minnows Pakistan and Jordan.
Given all the publicity Saudi football is getting right now, and the fact they’ll host the Asian Cup in 2027 and the World Cup in 2034, this team are under enormous pressure to succeed at this tournament.
With a potential quarter-final clash against Australia in the pipeline, followed by a prospective semi-final date with Japan in the semis, the Green Falcons’ road to glory is certainly not an easy one.
2: Korea Republic - 5/1
Did you know, when it comes to Korea Republic at the AFC Asian Cup, it is believed that this team is cursed?
The Taegeuk Warriors won the first two editions of this competition, in 1956 and 1960, the latter as hosts.
However, following the second triumph, the players discovered that their winners’ medals were fake, with the real gold ones having been stollen and sold off by a corrupt official.
The players demanded replacement gold medals, but the KFA did not oblige and it is believed the team have been cursed ever since, something the KFA attempted to rectify 50 years later, presenting surviving players with medals, but to no avail so far.
You may not believe in curses, but the proof has been in the pudding, with South Korea beaten in four Asian Cup Finals since their most-recent success 64 years ago, defeated by Iran (1972), Kuwait (1980), Saudi Arabia on penalties (1988) and Australia after extra time (2015).
They are always contenders, since 1996, Korea Republic have reached at least the quarter-finals at all seven editions, ousted by eventual winners Qatar in the last eight five years ago, but cannot go all the way.
The man tasked with leading them to glory this year is Jürgen Klinsmann, with the former Germany and USA manager taking over 12 months ago.
His squad features some serious talent, with a handful of Asia’s highest-quality players set to represent the Taegeuk Warriors.
Bayern Munich’s Kim Min-jae is one of best centre-backs on the planet, while Wolves’ Hwang Hee-chan, Lee Kang-in of PSG and Son Heung-min of Tottenham could form quite the attacking trident.
Son has scored 41 times for his country, still needing 17 more to match Cha Bum-kun’s national record that has stood for 46 years.
Other, lesser-known players such as Hwang In-beom (Crvena zvezda), Hong Hyun-seok (Gent), Jeong Woo-yeong (Stuttgart) and Celtic duo Yang Hyun-jun and Oh Hyeon-gyu are all plying their trades at a high-level in Europe, coming together to form a strong side.
Assuming all the heavyweights top their groups, Korea Republic would be on the opposite side of the bracket to Australia, Saudi Arabia and Japan, so could they reach a seventh final, desperate to finally break the curse?
1: Japan - 9/4
Most pundits, observers and odds-makers have Japan down as firm favourites to win this tournament and we’re no different.
Last time they were in Qatar, Hajime Moriyasu’s side beat both Germany and then Spain at the World Cup, thereby topping their group, before a heartbreaking penalty shootout defeat to Croatia in the round of 16.
Still, this is the first time ever the Samurai Blue have reached the knockout phase at back-to-back World Cups, although they are yet to get into the quarter-finals.
Japan managed to carry that momentum into 2023, winning eight successive matches to conclude last year, including friendly victories over Canada, Tunisia, Peru, Türkiye and, most-notably, Germany, taking the four-times world champions apart in a 4-1 drubbing at Volkswagen Arena.
In Asian Cup terms, the Samurai Blue did not debut at this tournament until 1988, but are the record four-times winners, picking up the trophy in 1992, 2000, 2004 and 2011, beating Australia 1-0 in Qatar 13 years ago.
Last time round, they got the final once again, overcoming Saudi Arabia, Vietnam and Iran in the knockout phase, but ended up as runners-up for the first time, surprisingly beaten 3-1 by Qatar in Abū Dhabī.
Nevertheless, thanks to their impressive run of results, and the array of high-quality players in their squad, we expect Hajime Moriyasu’s team to go one better.
Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu will start at centre-back, with Wataru Endō of Liverpool at the base of midfield.
Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma is sidelined, which is a big blow, but they still have plenty of attacking firepower, namely Daizen Maeda (Celtic), Takumi Minamino (Monaco), Ritsu Dōan (Freiburg), Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord) and superstar winger Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad).
Their prospective path to the final sees Japan facing UAE/China in the quarter-finals, Australia/Saudi Arabia in the semis and then Korea Republic in the final, which won’t be easy, but we are backing Samurai Blue to land a record-extending fifth Asian Cup trophy on 10 February.
Asia Cup betting offers
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